Desi Talk

www.desitalk.com – that’s all you need to know 12 GLOBAL April 3, 2026 C ountries are working to close the gap between the U.S. and India to extend a global agreement not to impose tariffs on electronic transmissions such as digital downloads and streaming, diplomats said on Saturday. India signalled it may drop its opposition to an exten- sion of the e-commerce moratorium – which is due to expire this month – and allow a two-year prolongation at theWorld Trade Organization meeting in Cameroon, three diplomats told Reuters. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, however, has saidWashington was not interested in a temporary extension to the ban, only a permanent one. Two senior diplomats and a trade official said mem- bers are negotiating to find a middle ground. One said that could be a five- to 10-year extension, while a third said they believe it is unlikely it would go beyond two years. Business leaders say an extension is critical to guaran- tee predictability, fearing duties could be introduced if the agreement lapses. E-COMMERCE A KEY TEST TO WTO The extension of the e-commerce moratorium during theWTO meeting in Yaounde is being seen as a key test for the global watchdog’s relevance, following a year of tariff-fuelled trade turmoil and major disruption to ship- ping, energy prices and supply chains due to the Middle East conflict. Extending the moratorium permanently would give the U.S. confidence to “remain fully engaged” in theWTO as it would demonstrate its relevance in today’s economy, U.S. Ambassador Joseph Barloon told Reuters in the lead- up to talks. The U.S. delivered a “strong message” to delegates at the conference about the need to permanently extend the moratorium, after 30 years of temporary extensions, a senior European diplomat said. “If the moratorium does not get extended, the U.S. will use it as an excuse to beat theWTO on the head,” a fourth senior diplomat said. The U.S. was described as being “frustrated” during the conference, including at a perceived lack of minister- level representation during talks in Yaounde, as well as organisational issues, a diplomat and a senior diplomat told Reuters. BUSINESSES FEAR UNCERTAINTY For nearly three decades, the e-commerce moratorium has been extended until the next ministerial conference. The U.S. wants major American tech businesses such as Amazon, Microsoft and Apple to have a stable regula- tory environment without the fear and costs of countries introducing duties that could affect cross-border digital trade. John Bescec, director, customs and trade affairs at Mi- crosoft, said businesses already face uncertainty around digital services across borders and require predictability. Some developing countries believe the e-commerce moratorium deprives them of potential tax revenue that they could invest back into their countries. OTHER BLOCKAGES IN TALKS India on Saturday reiterated its opposition to the in- corporation into theWTO rulebook of a plurilateral WTO agreement aimed at boosting investment in developing countries. New Delhi opposes the use of such agreements among a subset of willing members, saying it risks eroding the foundational principles of theWTO. Greer told delegates that allowing more flexibility into the system through bilateral and plurilateral deals would be part of the “new order”, while the EU commissioner for trade said they were key to reforming theWTO. Following built-up frustration, 66WTO members agreed to sidestep adoption hurdles for the world’s first baseline on digital trade rules, opting to bring the agree- ment into force among consenting participants. A senior European diplomat said it was a strong mes- sage to India, which has twice blocked the E-Commerce Agreement – which is separate to the moratorium – that countries would move forward without them if they blocked any reform process. “For too long, a minority has vetoed progress by coun- tries wanting to liberalize their digital trade. Today, that veto died. TheWTO now moves forward in a more flexible format,” said Simon Evenett, professor of geopolitics and strategy at IMD business school. -Reuters WTO Members Try To Close Gap Between US, India On E-Commerce Tariff Moratorium Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal speaks in the final hours of negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO) biennial gathering of ministers, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2024. PHOTO:REUTERS/EMMA FARGE From Indian Films To Italian Wine, Trump’s Iran War Ripples Through World Economy at a worse time. He’s sending out tractors to prepare the soil for the growing season, with intense farming taking place from April through mid-July, when the heat kills off mildew and other pests and his Gaglioppo and Greco Bianco grapes can mostly take care of themselves. “Every- thing will be more expensive,” Scala said. Even with diesel available to farmers tax-free from the government, he worries about the affordability of producing everything from wine to pasta. The fuel price pressures are hitting growers and winemakers at the same time as Trump’s tariffs. And because wine sales have been slowing not just in the US but around the world, Scala said he’s probably going to have to swallow the higher costs himself. “If we put one euro more on the price of the bottle, I’m sure that we will sell less wine,” he said. To underpin consumer spending in the US, the Trump administration has partly counted on enlarged tax re- funds to bolster economic growth in 2026. But if the war pushes oil to settle at $83 per barrel or above for much of the year, that would cancel out the average household’s gains from the refunds, according to AnnaWong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. Higher gasoline prices are already cutting into the financial boost households typically get from tax refunds, according to Citigroup Inc. economist Gisela Young. She estimates that a 20% increase in fuel prices would force Americans to spend about $6 billion more on gas in a single month, based on typical spending levels. So far, total tax refunds are only running about $20 billion higher than last year, according to data from the Internal Revenue Service. If gas prices stay elevated for three to four months, it could quickly eat through that cushion and “basically it offsets a pretty good chunk of the higher tax refunds, if not all,” Young said. Joe Lavorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Secu- rities America and a former US Treasury official, said increases in gas prices are effectively a tax hike because consumers have to pay that cost. “Another few weeks, we’re okay. We go a few months from now, we’re going to have some issues,” Lavorgna said on Bloomberg Television on March 18. “We have to watch the confidence in the consumer spending num- bers and see if the economy’s holding up.” Already stressing are US farmers, even though they re- ceived $12 billion in government aid during the first year of Trump’s second term. They’re gearing up for planting season and getting sticker shock from their projected fer- tilizer and fuel bills. Those financial strains portend crop shortages that could spread the pain to grocery checkout lines far from rural America. “Not only is this a threat to our food security – and by extension our national security – such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the US economy,” wrote Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, in a letter to Trump this month. In Australia, RBA Governor Michele Bullock summed up the dilemma confronting monetary policy makers in her press conference on March 17 after raising interest rates for a second straight meeting. “If we don’t raise interest rates and we’re going to see second-round effects coming from petrol prices and fuel prices, they’ll get into supply chains,” Bullock told report- ers. “If inflation gets built into the fibres and then we will see the costs of everything going up and that will be a much worse outcome.” Bloomberg - Continued From Page 10 By Olivia Le Poidevin